Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
65 0x658b…84bf weather 424 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$4,566 (+7%) realized +$4,565 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate59%244W / 173L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day63.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,214
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +4.4% -5.5% 43% 30% -3.1%
≤30d 259 +13.4% +2.6% 54% 20% -7.4%
≤90d 417 +26.0% +14.0% 59% 24% -6.4%
all 417 +26.0% +14.0% 59% 24% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.0% 24% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here +3.1% 19% -15.4%
15% -6.9% 15% -23.6%
20% -16.0% 12% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$485
Realized+$4,565
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses244 / 173
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)417 / 424
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$147
Trades / day63.8
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 417 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $420 $424 +$4 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? Yes 26¢ 33¢ $27 $34 +$7 (+27%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 19? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+12%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 19? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+48%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 18? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-58%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-80%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C or below on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $0 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -38%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $62 +$37 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $58 −$6 -10%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 17? Jun 16 $26 −$6 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $432 +$46 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$82 +408%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 −$14 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $567 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -60%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$5 +200%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 −$13 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$5 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -79%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$49 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $145 +$17 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$86 +875%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$12 -92%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? Jun 13 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $34 −$8 -23%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 +$25 +210%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $675 +$27 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 +$118 +312%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $875 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $73 +$9 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $78 +$15 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 −$17 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 18? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 18? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $46 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $22 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $66 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 42¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $198 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $45 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $61 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $485.39 · official $485.39 (match) · 3500 history records