Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:12:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
65 0x658b…ad0f sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-3%) realized −$17 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days−$5
14 days+$74
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 50% -13.4%
≤30d 18 -3.9% -13.0% 50% 50% -13.5%
≤90d 18 -3.9% -13.0% 50% 50% -13.5%
all 18 -3.9% -13.0% 50% 50% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 50% -13.5%
10% -21.4% 50% -21.7%
15% -29.0% 50% -29.3%
20% -35.9% 50% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$29 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage18d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 160.5 Over 56¢ 54¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) Minnesota Lynx 52¢ 52¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 180.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 171.5 Jun 21 $28 +$25 +90%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 Jun 20 $28 +$28 +97%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 Jun 14 $27 +$27 +97%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 170.5 Jun 11 $26 −$26 -98%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) Jun 11 $28 +$28 +97%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $30 +$27 +90%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5 Jun 10 $29 +$26 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $28 +$26 +93%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 07 $37 −$36 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty: O/U 175.5 Jun 06 $31 −$31 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 05 $28 −$28 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5 Jun 05 $30 +$27 +87%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 04 $28 −$28 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 04 $28 −$28 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 172.5 Jun 04 $30 +$27 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 160.5 BUY Over 56¢ $32 1h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 180.5 BUY Under 52¢ $28 1h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 52¢ $28 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 52¢ $28 25h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 50¢ $28 3d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 BUY Under 52¢ $28 4d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 53¢ $30 4d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 52¢ $29 7d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 50¢ $27 8d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 170.5 BUY Under 49¢ $26 10d
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) BUY Connecticut Sun 50¢ $28 12d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 12d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 52¢ $29 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 51¢ $28 13d
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 14d
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 53¢ $31 14d
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty: O/U 175.5 BUY Over 53¢ $31 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 51¢ $28 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 51¢ $28 16d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 51¢ $28 16d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5 BUY Under 53¢ $30 17d
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 172.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.75 · official $85.75 (match) · 31 history records