Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
65 0x658e…9e6b crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate28%18W / 47L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 45 +7.9% -2.4% 24% 9% -9.5%
all 65 +12.8% +2.1% 28% 14% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 14% -9.5%
10% -7.7% 14% -18.1%
15% -16.6% 14% -26.0%
20% -24.8% 14% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×13.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.22 per $1 lost it wins $5.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses18 / 47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage108d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $188 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $188 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $187 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $188 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? May 31 $188 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $187 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $187 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $187 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $187 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $187 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $187 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $188 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 05 $189 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 22? Apr 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 19? Apr 19 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,550 on April 16? Apr 17 $189 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 15? Apr 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on April 14? Apr 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $185 +$2 +1%
Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Apr Apr 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $183 $0 -0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $169 $0 -0%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seat Apr 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $169 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on April 11? Apr 12 $167 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 11? Apr 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $189 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $189 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $190 $0 -0%
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed by March 31? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $190 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $190 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 29? Mar 29 $190 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 28? Mar 28 $190 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $190 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on March 26? Mar 27 $190 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $190 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $188 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $188 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $188 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $187 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 100¢ $187 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $187 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $187 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $188 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $188 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $187 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? SELL Yes 100¢ $187 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $187 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $187 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $187 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $187 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $187 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $187 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $187 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $187 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $187 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $187 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $187 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $187 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $187 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.14 · official $0.00 · 216 history records