Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6590…3a26 weather 344 markets active 2d ago coverage 64d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$21,630 (+5138%) realized +$21,626 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%115W / 589L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day53.7pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 36% +$319
politics 33% +$327
other 19% −$10
crypto 7% −$4
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+64.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 391 +154.7% +130.5% 21% 20% -9.9%
≤30d 426 +150.1% +126.3% 21% 20% -1.1%
≤90d 704 +81.7% +64.4% 16% 16% +2.9%
all 704 +81.7% +64.4% 16% 16% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +64.4% 16% +2.9%
10% ← realistic here +48.6% 14% -6.9%
15% +34.3% 14% -15.9%
20% +21.1% 14% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +215% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +82% · $-wt +215% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +178% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$1 · ×19.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.82 per $1 lost it wins $3.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized+$21,626
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses115 / 589
Open positions9
Markets (closed)704 / 344
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day53.7
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 704 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-11%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+436%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Theo FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1850%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+106%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 486 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $0 +$15 +38413%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ma Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 15 $1 +$20 +2167%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of January? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +107638%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on February 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 38°F or higher on Jan Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on February 21 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will NYC have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in January? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 1°C on January 5? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C or below on January 2? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 28? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on Ja Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be 4-6 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jun 15 $0 +$4 +996%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Jun 15 $0 +$34 +1133097%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 12? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on Febr Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -94%
Will Solana reach $170 in January? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on Mar Jun 15 $0 $0 -384%
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or higher on January 3? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Fe Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 94°F or higher on February 22 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 9? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Ma Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on Jan Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 27? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on Febr Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on January 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Ja Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jun 15 $0 +$18 +801217%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 9-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +197%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on Fe Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 11? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 43°F or below on Marc Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 13 to Mar Jun 15 $0 $0 +950%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Jun 15 $0 +$20 +249795%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 22? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 13 to March Jun 15 $0 +$1 +206%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ma Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY No 1¢ $1 43h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY No 1¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.80 · official $306.83 (match) · 3500 history records