Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
65 0x6592…7786 other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$14
other 37% −$81
sports 17% +$16
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 67 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 122 -1.7% -11.1% 8% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 7% -9.8%
10% -19.6% 3% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)122 / 125
History coverage134d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $252 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $31 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $205 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $238 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $237 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 25 $264 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $224 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $435 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $287 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 17 $271 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $276 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $216 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $508 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $243 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $211 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $213 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $273 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $208 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $234 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $273 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $276 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 03 $245 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $299 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $200 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $258 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $241 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $245 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $290 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 25h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 27h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 43h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 3d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 3d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 8d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 11d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $48 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $48 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 16d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 16d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 16d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 23d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 23d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $253 25d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $253 26d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $205 27d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $205 27d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $238 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.91 · official $96.91 (match) · 326 history records