Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:37:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x6592…2767 other 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,327 (+50%) realized +$2,345 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%27W / 47L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day35.9pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$1,270
crypto 37% +$564
sports 25% +$968
world 1% −$42
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +29.4% +17.1% 36% 35% +50.6%
≤30d 74 +29.4% +17.1% 36% 35% +50.6%
≤90d 74 +29.4% +17.1% 36% 35% +50.6%
all 74 +29.4% +17.1% 36% 35% +50.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.1% 35% +50.6%
10% ← realistic here +5.9% 35% +36.2%
15% -4.3% 32% +23.0%
20% -13.7% 28% +11.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +108% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$29 · ×5.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.01 per $1 lost it wins $3.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized+$2,345
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses27 / 47
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions12
Markets (closed)74 / 87
History coverage4d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $200 $189 −$11 (-6%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+58%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$64 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$265 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$50 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$188 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$52 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $127 +$47 +37%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$92 -90%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $718 +$974 +136%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $128 −$81 -63%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$453 +442%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$165 +54%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $41 +$403 +980%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $21 +$277 +1345%
Amine Gouiri: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Lionel Messi: 2+ assists Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$38 +186%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $59 +$656 +1116%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 16 $27 −$6 -21%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $18 +$9 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +75%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$26 +51%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$46 +180%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $78 −$76 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $28 −$27 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists Jun 15 $10 +$49 +474%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$54 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $128 +$52 +41%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $41 +$70 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 7h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 7h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $1,692 8h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 8h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $513 9h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 9h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 10h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.19 · official $416.57 (match) · 150 history records