Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x6593…59f7 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$65 (+1%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate88%14W / 2L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$383per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$57
other 12% $0
economics 6% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 16 +1.1% -8.6% 88% 0% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -8.6%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×31.0 per $1 lost it wins $31.0
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses14 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage227d
Avg bet$383
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? Jun 17 $410 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 19 $413 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 1? Feb 28 $413 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $412 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 26? Feb 26 $411 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 29 $410 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 26-1? Jan 29 $407 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 12-18? Jan 14 $382 +$25 +7%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 22-28? Dec 25 $371 +$11 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 11 $363 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on November 21? Dec 01 $363 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on November 18? Nov 20 $362 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 10-16? Nov 17 $354 +$8 +2%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Nov 11 $356 −$2 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on November 6? Nov 06 $356 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $270 in November? Nov 04 $352 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $412 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $410 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $283 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $20 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $24 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $20 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $67 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $413 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 1? SELL No 100¢ $17 109d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 1? SELL No 100¢ $173 109d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 1? SELL No 100¢ $122 109d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 1? SELL No 100¢ $96 109d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 1? SELL No 100¢ $6 109d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $413 109d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 27? SELL No 100¢ $413 109d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $412 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $412 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $411 111d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $389 138d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $11 138d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $11 138d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $410 139d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 26-1? SELL No 100¢ $1 139d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 26-1? SELL No 99¢ $111 139d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 26-1? SELL No 99¢ $117 139d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 26-1? SELL No 99¢ $4 139d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 26-1? SELL No 100¢ $26 139d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 26-1? SELL No 100¢ $151 139d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 26-1? BUY No 99¢ $407 139d
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 12-18? SELL No 99¢ $407 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records