Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6593…445e other 62 markets active 1d ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$266 (-15%) realized −$365 · open +$99
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%15W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$447now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$60
14 days−$162
30 days−$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$211
sports 24% −$37
world 17% −$79
politics 3% +$11
economics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -66.5% -69.7% 33% 0% -45.2%
≤30d 24 -46.2% -51.3% 25% 21% -42.0%
≤90d 30 -27.5% -34.4% 30% 27% -31.9%
all 56 -22.4% -29.7% 27% 25% -37.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 25% -37.8%
10% -36.5% 25% -43.7%
15% -42.6% 25% -49.2%
20% -48.2% 23% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$19 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$447
Realized−$365
Unrealized+$99
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses15 / 41
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)56 / 62
History coverage139d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $122 $114 −$8 (-7%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 82¢ $50 $84 +$34 (+68%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 60¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+47%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $40 $70 +$30 (+74%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $35 $48 +$13 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 27 $30 −$30 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $91 $0 +0%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $23 −$13 -56%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 19 $36 −$35 -99%
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 −$11 -21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $47 −$46 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $37 +$40 +109%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $41 −$26 -63%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $33 +$31 +93%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $34 +$35 +105%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $74 −$72 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $35 +$23 +65%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 24 $1 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $30 −$12 -39%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $26 +$83 +325%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 04 $20 +$8 +40%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 May 04 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 03 $20 +$13 +63%
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $17 −$4 -26%
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial elect Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $18 +$10 +53%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31? Mar 04 $13 −$10 -73%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $25 −$20 -80%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? Mar 04 $18 +$30 +167%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 04 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026? Mar 04 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 04 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $20 −$1 -5%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $2 +$8 +399%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Mar 02 $2 +$1 +67%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $2 +$10 +525%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 46¢ $30 25h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 28h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 68¢ $91 47h
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $36 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 38¢ $31 7d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 8d
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 51¢ $36 8d
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 8d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $40 8d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 8d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $48 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $50 9d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $23 10d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 10d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $47 10d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $37 10d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 10d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 11d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 11d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 14¢ $15 11d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $34 11d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 51¢ $33 11d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 65¢ $40 15d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $36 15d
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $23 16d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $23 16d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $35 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.69 · official $446.69 (match) · 128 history records