Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6597…ca42 crypto 97 markets active 138d ago coverage 572d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$264,790 (+29%) realized +$264,790 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate29%28W / 69L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$9,262per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 81% +$256,992
economics 16% +$7,099
crypto 2% −$5,761
tech 1% +$805
other 0% −$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 97 -34.4% -40.6% 29% 15% +16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.6% 15% +16.6%
10% ← realistic here -46.3% 6% +5.4%
15% -51.5% 2% -4.7%
20% -56.3% 1% -14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -35% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9,926 vs −$275 · ×36.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.66 per $1 lost it wins $14.66
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$264,790
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses28 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage572d
Avg bet$9,262
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 11 $84 −$26 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 11 $8 −$2 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 11 $24 +$3 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 11 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 11 $3 −$1 -36%
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 11 $67 −$14 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 11 $35 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 11 $67 +$3 +4%
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 11 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 11 $23 −$3 -13%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 11 $45 −$9 -19%
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 11 $32 −$8 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 11 $25 +$4 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 11 $23 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 11 $24 +$2 +10%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 11 $22 +$3 +12%
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 11 $36 −$5 -14%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 11 $133 −$14 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 11 $163 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 11 $12 −$5 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 11 $64 +$5 +8%
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 11 $226 −$18 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 10 $442 −$20 -4%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 10 $254 −$28 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 10 $254 −$12 -5%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 10 $650 −$40 -6%
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 10 $219 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 10 $163 −$6 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 10 $128 −$8 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 10 $19 −$3 -14%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 10 $41 −$12 -30%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 10 $243 −$16 -7%
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 10 $75 −$5 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 10 $653 −$23 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 10 $252 +$50 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 10 $61 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 10 $58 −$10 -16%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 10 $16 −$4 -23%
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 10 $4 −$3 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 10 $8 −$6 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 10 $37 −$10 -27%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 10 $12 +$3 +29%
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 10 $29 −$14 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 10 $74 −$11 -15%
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 10 $95 −$19 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 10 $20 −$8 -40%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 10 $97 −$26 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 138d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 138d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 138d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 138d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 138d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 138d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 138d
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 138d
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 138d
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 138d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 138d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 138d
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $21 138d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 138d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 138d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 138d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 138d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 138d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 138d
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 138d
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 138d
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 138d
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $8 138d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $7 138d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 138d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 138d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 138d
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 138d
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 138d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2597 history records