Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
65 0x659a…09f6 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$298 (+9%) realized +$380 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$368per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$601now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$633
other 40% +$335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +45.3% +31.5% 62% 62% +26.9%
≤30d 8 +45.3% +31.5% 62% 62% +26.9%
≤90d 8 +45.3% +31.5% 62% 62% +26.9%
all 8 +45.3% +31.5% 62% 62% +26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.5% 62% +26.9%
10% +18.9% 62% +14.8%
15% +7.4% 50% +3.7%
20% -3.1% 38% -6.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$279 vs −$115 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.04 per $1 lost it wins $4.04
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$601
Realized+$380
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$368
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 48¢ $684 $601 −$82 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $1,000 +$442 +44%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $300 −$200 -67%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $100 +$31 +31%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $510 +$260 +51%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $50 +$206 +412%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $100 −$97 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $500 +$457 +91%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50 −$48 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $700 33m
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 16¢ $100 2h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $300 9h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 68¢ $1,000 9h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 92¢ $131 19h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 68¢ $100 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $770 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $510 32h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 43¢ $100 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $50 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $500 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $601.42 · official $601.42 (match) · 15 history records