Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:00:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x659c…85bb sports 314 markets active 0h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,405 (+1%) realized +$2,411 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%176W / 137L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$1,147per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$97
14 days+$97
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$3,015
other 28% +$2,804
world 2% −$2,733
crypto 2% −$581
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +79.4% +62.3% 100% 100% +62.3%
≤30d 1 +79.4% +62.3% 100% 100% +62.3%
≤90d 1 +79.4% +62.3% 100% 100% +62.3%
all 313 -8.1% -16.8% 56% 54% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 54% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 45% -17.6%
15% -32.1% 38% -25.6%
20% -38.7% 30% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +79% too few recent
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,459) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$786 vs −$992 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized+$2,411
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses176 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)313 / 314
History coverage168d
Avg bet$1,147
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 50¢ $220 $214 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $123 +$97 +79%
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-02-20? Feb 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Burton Albion FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 14 $133 −$133 -100%
Rockets vs. Thunder Feb 07 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $118 +$132 +113%
Samsunspor vs. Trabzonspor: Both Teams to Score Feb 07 $631 −$631 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 07 $415 +$217 +52%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 4.5 Feb 07 $300 +$116 +39%
NEC vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 4.5 Feb 07 $200 +$91 +46%
Will Modena FC 2018 win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $100 +$108 +108%
Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 07 $50 +$50 +100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Feb 07 $404 +$64 +16%
Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Antalyaspor: Both Teams to Score Feb 07 $148 −$148 -100%
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Alycia Parks Feb 07 $442 −$442 -100%
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $274 +$168 +62%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-06? Feb 06 $284 +$117 +41%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5 Feb 06 $122 +$168 +138%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Feb 06 $316 −$316 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $74,000 on February 6? Feb 06 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-01-24? Feb 06 $35 −$35 -100%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Volendam: O/U 2.5 Feb 06 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2026-01-24? Feb 06 $216 −$216 -100%
En Avant Guingamp vs. ES Troyes AC: O/U 1.5 Feb 06 $364 −$364 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 02 $9 +$5 +59%
Will Tottenham finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Jan 24 $300 −$265 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 24 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 24 $415 −$415 -100%
Al Fayha Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jan 24 $865 −$865 -100%
AFC Ajax vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 4.5 Jan 24 $2,307 −$2,307 -100%
Racing Club de Lens vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5 Jan 24 $3,957 −$3,957 -100%
Millwall FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 24 $179 +$184 +102%
Kayserispor vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 2.5 Jan 24 $120 +$96 +80%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $1,916 +$390 +20%
Chelsea FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 17 $1,471 +$445 +30%
ES Troyes AC vs. Stade de Reims: O/U 2.5 Jan 17 $3,301 +$2,585 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-01-16? Jan 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC: O/U 3.5 Jan 17 $745 −$745 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-15? Jan 17 $110 −$110 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs EDward Gaming (BO3) Jan 17 $970 −$970 -100%
Counter-Strike: los kogutos vs MASONIC (BO3) Jan 17 $1,693 −$1,693 -100%
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5 Jan 17 $3,715 −$3,715 -100%
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-01-16? Jan 17 $4,808 −$4,808 -100%
UMBC Retrievers vs. Bryant Bulldogs Jan 17 $4,365 −$4,365 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 17 $455 +$162 +36%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Jan 17 $2,846 +$830 +29%
Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 17 $1,791 +$1,095 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $223 29m
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $123 2h
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-02-20? BUY No 35¢ $58 118d
Burton Albion FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $133 124d
Rockets vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 19¢ $240 130d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-02-07? SELL No 100¢ $250 130d
Samsunspor vs. Trabzonspor: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $631 131d
Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $633 131d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-02-07? BUY No 47¢ $118 131d
Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $415 131d
Racing Club de Lens vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $416 131d
Racing Club de Lens vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $299 131d
Racing Club de Lens vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $1 131d
NEC vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $291 131d
NEC vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 68¢ $200 131d
Will Modena FC 2018 win on 2026-02-07? SELL No 100¢ $208 131d
Will Modena FC 2018 win on 2026-02-07? BUY No 49¢ $4 131d
Will Modena FC 2018 win on 2026-02-07? BUY No 48¢ $96 131d
Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $100 131d
Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $50 131d
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? SELL No 35¢ $50 131d
Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Antalyaspor: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $0 131d
Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Antalyaspor: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 131d
Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Antalyaspor: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $145 131d
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? SELL No 35¢ $135 131d
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? SELL No 36¢ $13 131d
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Alycia Parks BUY Sierra 41¢ $442 131d
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-07? SELL No 100¢ $442 131d
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-07? BUY No 62¢ $17 131d
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-07? BUY No 62¢ $109 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.55 · official $213.55 (match) · 1936 history records