Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

65 0x659c…dd03 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$233 (+19%) realized +$230 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip

Net edge-42%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%6W / 10L

Drawdown46%max

Avg bet$58per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$44

7 days+$214

14 days+$214

30 days+$214

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-42.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	-36.4%	-42.5%	38%	38%	+10.4%
≤30d	16	-36.4%	-42.5%	38%	38%	+10.4%
≤90d	16	-36.4%	-42.5%	38%	38%	+10.4%
all	16	-36.4%	-42.5%	38%	38%	+10.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-42.5%	38%	+10.4%
10%	-48.0%	19%	-0.1%
15%	-53.0%	19%	-9.8%
20%	-57.6%	12%	-18.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 73% · top 2 87% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -36% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -42% → late -31% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$84 vs −$29 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage

Net worth$239

Realized+$230

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses6 / 10

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)16 / 21

History coverage97d

Avg bet$58

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown46%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	74¢	74¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	42¢	42¢	$60	$59	−$1 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	96¢	98¢	$31	$32	+$1 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	8¢	$25	$30	+$5 (+22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$20	$17	−$3 (-14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 23	$15	−$15	-97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$15	+$3	+19%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$15	+$11	+72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$293	+$45	+15%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$64	−$63	-99%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$164	+$74	+45%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$11	−$11	-100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	Jun 22	$11	−$11	-100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$111	−$111	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$50	+$6	+11%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 21	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$144	+$365	+254%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 20	$31	−$31	-100%
Will Trump say "Finish the Job" this week? (March 22)	Jun 20	$25	−$25	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	74¢	$101	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	42¢	$61	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	28¢	$15	14h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$64	20h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	57¢	$15	22h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	83¢	$15	22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$293	22h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	25¢	$10	45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$164	45h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY Yes	26¢	$11	2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5	BUY Over	33¢	$11	2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$26	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$111	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$50	3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$508	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	20¢	$89	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	69¢	$54	3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	19¢	$1	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	78¢	$31	6d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	BUY No	96¢	$31	95d
Will Trump say "Finish the Job" this week? (March 22)	BUY Yes	60¢	$25	97d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.21 · official $239.21 (match) · 40 history records