Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

65
0x659c…9cab
other · 54 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
−$18 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$59
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses12 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage549d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 2 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $95 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $18 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $17 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $12 +$5 +46%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $78 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 18 $5 +$3 +65%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $158 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $74 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $82 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 06 $83 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $75 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $75 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $82 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $77 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $75 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $84 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $77 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $84 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $79 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $4 +$7 +165%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $10 +$6 +62%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $5 +$5 +105%
Utah vs. Kraken Apr 06 $9 +$7 +75%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $37 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $46 +$6 +12%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs: O/U 169.5 Mar 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Mar 05 $86 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $85 +$1 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $13,538 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 01 $25 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 12 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 78% −$14
politics 10% −$8
other 8% +$11
world 2% +$1
sports 1% −$11
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 14h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 21h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 18d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $21 18d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $14 19d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $14 19d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $11 20d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 22d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 22d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 23d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 23d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $14 24d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $14 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $12 25d
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $32 25d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 25d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 25d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $78 26d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $78 26d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $5 29d
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY San Diego Padres 43¢ $7 31d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $80 31d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $80 32d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $77 33d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $77 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +0.7% -8.9% 23% 15% -9.0%
≤90d 41 +3.1% -6.7% 22% 17% -9.5%
all 52 +2.3% -7.4% 23% 13% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 13% -9.6%
10% -16.3% 12% -18.3%
15% -24.4% 12% -26.2%
20% -31.8% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.73 · official $58.73 (match) · 203 history records