Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
65 0x65a1…2ddb crypto 7 markets active 5d ago coverage 74d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$94 (-23%) realized −$95 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 27% +$1
world 25% −$19
crypto 23% −$36
other 23% −$52
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -32.8% -39.2% 0% 0% -39.2%
≤30d 4 -27.2% -34.1% 25% 0% -41.1%
≤90d 6 -34.7% -40.9% 33% 0% -41.9%
all 6 -34.7% -40.9% 33% 0% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 0% -41.9%
10% -46.5% 0% -47.5%
15% -51.7% 0% -52.5%
20% -56.4% 0% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$27 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage74d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 12 $89 −$29 -33%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? May 31 $89 −$52 -59%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $105 −$19 -18%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 13 $7 −$7 -96%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? Apr 13 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.89 · official $15.89 (match) · 14 history records