trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Yes | 85¢ | 96¢ | $10,388 | $11,640 | +$1,252 (+12%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $970 | $961 | −$9 (-1%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 54¢ | 54¢ | $120 | $119 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 47¢ | 46¢ | $80 | $77 | −$3 (-3%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Yes | 30¢ | 2¢ | $559 | $28 | −$531 (-95%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 60¢ | $25 | $25 | +$0 (+1%) |
| UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) | Justin Gaethje | 20¢ | 20¢ | $7 | $7 | −$0 (-2%) |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $55 | $0 | −$55 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $368 | +$72 | +20% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 12 | $102 | −$5 | -5% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 12 | $102 | −$6 | -6% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 12 | $102 | −$5 | -5% |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 12 | $102 | −$7 | -7% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 12 | $102 | −$6 | -5% |
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? | Jun 12 | $102 | −$6 | -5% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 12 | $102 | −$6 | -6% |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? | Jun 12 | $102 | −$7 | -6% |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? | Jun 12 | $102 | −$6 | -6% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $227 | −$43 | -19% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | Jun 04 | $134 | −$21 | -16% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | Jun 04 | $179 | +$114 | +64% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $57 | −$55 | -96% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | Jun 03 | $5 | −$1 | -14% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | Jun 03 | $60 | +$29 | +49% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | -4.6% | -13.7% | 9% | 9% | -10.9% |
| ≤30d | 16 | -4.3% | -13.4% | 19% | 19% | -7.5% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -4.3% | -13.4% | 19% | 19% | -7.5% |
| all | 16 | -4.3% | -13.4% | 19% | 19% | -7.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.4% | 19% | -7.5% |
| 10% | -21.7% | 12% | -16.3% |
| 15% | -29.2% | 12% | -24.4% |
| 20% | -36.2% | 6% | -31.8% |