Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65a3…27aa weather 100 markets active 15h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-2%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%16W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$28
other 5% +$4
politics 3% −$12
culture 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.8% -7.9% 42% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 38 -1.5% -10.9% 21% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 100 -25.4% -32.5% 16% 0% -12.9%
all 100 -25.4% -32.5% 16% 0% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 0% -12.9%
10% -38.9% 0% -21.2%
15% -44.8% 0% -28.8%
20% -50.2% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses16 / 84
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage58d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $12 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 8? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 2? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 1? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 1? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 31? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 30? May 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on May 30? May 31 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 28? May 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 28? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 27? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 18? May 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 16? May 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 17? May 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 16? May 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 15? May 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 15? May 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 14? May 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 13? May 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 09 $12 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ma May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 6? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on May 6? May 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 6? May 06 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 SELL Yes 99¢ $13 15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 90¢ $12 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? SELL No 99¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $14 3d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? BUY No 96¢ $14 3d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $13 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $12 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $11 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 11? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 11? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? BUY Yes $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 9? BUY Yes $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 8? BUY Yes $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 8? BUY Yes $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 8? BUY Yes $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 8? BUY Yes $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.99 · official $54.99 (match) · 321 history records