Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x65a4…e78f weather 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+1%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%82W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$46
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$34
world 2% +$3
tech 1% +$2
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 83% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 37 +1.8% -7.9% 95% 3% -7.8%
≤90d 83 +0.8% -8.8% 95% 2% -9.2%
all 86 +0.8% -8.8% 95% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 2% -9.2%
10% -17.5% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$30 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses82 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)86 / 90
History coverage113d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $112 $112 +$0 (+0%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 68¢ 89¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+31%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $206 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $188 +$20 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $185 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $184 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $183 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $180 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $176 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 9? Jun 08 $172 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $166 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $166 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7? Jun 06 $165 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $158 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $150 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $148 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $146 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $146 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? Jun 02 $143 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $143 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $143 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $138 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 31? May 31 $136 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 30? May 30 $130 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 29? May 29 $121 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 29? May 29 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 28? May 28 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 27? May 27 $118 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 27? May 26 $117 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 26? May 26 $115 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 25? May 25 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 24? May 24 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 23? May 23 $113 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 22 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 22? May 22 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 18? May 20 $113 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 16? May 16 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 15? May 15 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 14? May 14 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 13? May 13 $108 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 12? May 12 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 11? May 11 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 10? May 10 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 9? May 09 $103 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 8? May 08 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 8? May 08 $21 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $112 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $112 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $112 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $112 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $110 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $110 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $110 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $110 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $110 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $110 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $109 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $210 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $210 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $209 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $206 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $208 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $188 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $187 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $185 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $185 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $184 9d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $184 9d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $183 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $183 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $180 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $180 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $176 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 9? SELL No 99¢ $176 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 97¢ $172 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $172 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.19 · official $124.19 (match) · 184 history records