Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:22:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65a8…d661 world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$263 (-3%) realized −$263 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate43%32W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$4
14 days+$77
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$122
politics 16% +$26
other 8% −$141
sports 2% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 12 +9.6% -0.8% 33% 17% -2.6%
≤90d 61 -2.6% -11.9% 43% 13% -12.7%
all 74 -3.7% -12.9% 43% 14% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 14% -13.1%
10% -21.2% 3% -21.4%
15% -28.8% 3% -29.0%
20% -35.8% 3% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$263
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses32 / 42
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage137d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 74¢ 74¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 24 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 24 $63 −$6 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $36 +$3 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $66 +$64 +96%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $31 +$26 +84%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $57 −$11 -19%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 11 $17 +$2 +10%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 08 $21 −$6 -27%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 01 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? May 31 $160 −$2 -2%
Will Pakistan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 29 $72 −$15 -21%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? May 28 $87 −$1 -1%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? May 22 $156 −$11 -7%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? May 20 $15 $0 -3%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? May 20 $83 −$3 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $89 −$2 -2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 16 $91 −$2 -2%
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $78 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 12 $76 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 12 $38 +$1 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $39 +$2 +5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 04 $41 −$4 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 04 $77 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 30 $86 +$2 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $72 −$1 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $72 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $139 +$4 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $156 −$13 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 24 $46 +$5 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 23 $28 +$3 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 21 $30 −$24 -80%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $19 −$2 -8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 21 $35 −$20 -56%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 21 $42 −$5 -13%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 20 $88 −$4 -4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 14 $118 −$44 -37%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $225 +$27 +12%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 11 $88 +$5 +5%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Apr 10 $96 −$6 -7%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 09 $29 −$8 -28%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $34 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 08 $160 −$38 -24%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 08 $42 −$34 -82%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $261 −$95 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 74¢ $36 1h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $36 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 73¢ $29 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $29 6d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 27¢ $18 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 7d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 66¢ $10 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 57¢ $20 7d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 8d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 46¢ $25 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $85 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $31 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $32 12d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $46 12d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL No 64¢ $18 12d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY No 57¢ $17 15d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 35¢ $16 15d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 47¢ $21 22d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 92¢ $21 22d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 93¢ $22 23d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? SELL No 86¢ $22 23d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? BUY No 92¢ $24 24d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? SELL No 89¢ $24 24d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? BUY No 90¢ $25 25d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $57 25d
Will Pakistan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 76¢ $57 25d
Will Pakistan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $72 26d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? SELL No 96¢ $72 26d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? BUY No 94¢ $72 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.68 · official $69.68 (match) · 280 history records