Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
65 0x65aa…6392 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$721 (+12%) realized −$169 · open +$890
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$5,480now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$172
14 days−$172
30 days−$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$850
sports 29% −$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -18.2% -26.0% 38% 38% -21.5%
≤30d 16 -18.2% -26.0% 38% 38% -21.5%
≤90d 16 -18.2% -26.0% 38% 38% -21.5%
all 17 -23.0% -30.3% 35% 35% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 35% -23.5%
10% -37.0% 35% -30.8%
15% -43.1% 35% -37.5%
20% -48.7% 35% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$72 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$5,480
Realized−$169
Unrealized+$890
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage221d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $4,000 $4,895 +$895 (+22%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 55¢ $590 $585 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$57 +114%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $149 +$101 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $79 −$78 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $287 −$265 -92%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $91 +$197 +216%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $44 +$48 +109%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $132 −$129 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $136 +$122 +90%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $62 −$61 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $55 +$58 +105%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $598 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $18 6h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $51 12h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4,107 16h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $50 26h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $99 32h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $51 32h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $79 34h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 3¢ $23 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $287 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $288 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $91 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $91 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 47¢ $44 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $95 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $132 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $136 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $62 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $55 5d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 36¢ $35 221d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,479.87 · official $5,479.87 (match) · 28 history records