Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

65 0x65ab…34ad sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$11 (+7%) realized +$11 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip

Net edge+3%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+7.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+18.8%	+7.5%	50%	50%	+7.5%
≤30d	2	+18.8%	+7.5%	50%	50%	+7.5%
≤90d	2	+18.8%	+7.5%	50%	50%	+7.5%
all	2	+18.8%	+7.5%	50%	50%	+7.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.5%	50%	+7.5%
10%	-2.8%	50%	-2.8%
15%	-12.2%	50%	-12.2%
20%	-20.8%	50%	-20.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$23 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.49 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$90

Realized+$11

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	73¢	74¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5	Over	68¢	68¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5	Under	49¢	48¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	Jun 29	$30	+$35	+114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$31	−$23	-76%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5	BUY Under	49¢	$10	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5	BUY Over	68¢	$30	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	73¢	$50	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	SELL Brazil	100¢	$65	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	11¢	$7	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	44¢	$31	2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Brazil	46¢	$30	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.02 · official $90.02 (match) · 7 history records