Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65ab…273d other 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$494 (-0%) realized −$530 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate51%118W / 114L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$645per market
Trades / day51.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$948now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$3,811
world 0% −$93
sports 0% +$30
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -41.0% -46.7% 40% 21% -21.7%
≤30d 154 -24.8% -32.0% 47% 27% -7.4%
≤90d 232 -17.3% -25.2% 51% 27% -7.3%
all 232 -17.3% -25.2% 51% 27% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 27% -7.3%
10% -32.3% 16% -16.2%
15% ← realistic here -38.9% 14% -24.3%
20% -44.9% 12% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$259 vs −$235 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$948
Realized−$530
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses118 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions14
Markets (closed)232 / 243
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$645
Trades / day51.9
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $288 $297 +$9 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $182 $181 −$1 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $92 $98 +$6 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 44¢ 60¢ $65 $91 +$25 (+39%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 70¢ 69¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 25¢ 40¢ $25 $40 +$16 (+62%)
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Yes 42¢ 33¢ $26 $21 −$5 (-20%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+69%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-54%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-86%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $375 +$25 +7%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $88 +$12 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $31 +$19 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $384 +$51 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 22 $47 −$47 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $77 −$77 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 22 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 22 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 22 $2 +$2 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 22 $93 +$17 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 22 $93 +$6 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 22 $305 −$205 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 22 $3,354 −$2,454 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 22 $163 −$13 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 22 $686 −$390 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 22 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 22 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 22 $384 +$16 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 22 $184 +$16 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 22 $69 −$19 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 22 $568 −$368 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $82 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 2h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $24 10h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 10h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $29 12h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $197 12h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $43 12h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $88 13h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $5 13h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $2 13h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $6 14h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $23 14h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $5 15h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $268 15h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $29 15h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $38 15h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 15h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $48 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $948.29 · official $947.35 (match) · 3500 history records