Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
65 0x65af…df77 sports 1288 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,071 (-1%) realized −$2,072 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate50%644W / 632L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Fees−$440est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$79
14 days−$12
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$1,085
other 13% −$464
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$18
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -11.2% -19.7% 41% 41% -5.9%
≤30d 296 -13.6% -21.8% 44% 40% -9.9%
≤90d 1103 -9.6% -18.2% 49% 36% -10.4%
all 1276 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 35% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 35% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 28% -19.2%
15% -32.6% 21% -27.0%
20% -39.2% 16% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$19 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$2,072
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses644 / 632
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$440
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1276 / 1288
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$107
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jessica Pegula 60¢ 78¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$31 +152%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Scor Jun 20 $10 +$46 +450%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $20 +$27 +131%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$43 +42%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-10.5) Jun 18 $10 +$5 +50%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$70 +342%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $201 +$22 +11%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$16 +27%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$13 +66%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -91%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $302 +$64 +21%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $5 −$2 -41%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 +$12 +57%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$5 +152%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $106 +$25 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -22%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$20 +101%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $5 −$4 -80%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $2 −$2 -78%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$40 +198%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 76¢ $59 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $51 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 37¢ $12 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 63¢ $20 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 16¢ $10 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $20 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: BUY 24¢ $10 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Scor BUY 18¢ $10 12h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $2 12h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-1 BUY 43¢ $20 16h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 24¢ $10 35h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Bosnia and Herzegov BUY 25¢ $10 40h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: BUY 23¢ $20 43h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $50 43h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $30 43h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $20 43h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 48¢ $10 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 48¢ $10 45h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY 20¢ $20 2d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-10.5) SELL Minnesota Lynx 72¢ $15 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Uzbekistan vs. Colomb BUY 69¢ $20 2d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-10.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 47¢ $10 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 30¢ $20 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $201 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $30 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 22¢ $20 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $10 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.59 · official $14.59 · 3500 history records