Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:10:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x65b5…2b77 politics 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$896 (+11%) realized +$696 · open +$200
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%28W / 20L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$820now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$1,866
other 25% −$298
sports 17% +$186
economics 5% −$282
world 4% −$179
tech 2% −$200
culture 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 48 -9.1% -17.8% 58% 50% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 50% +0.8%
10% -25.7% 35% -8.8%
15% -32.8% 25% -17.7%
20% -39.4% 21% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$103 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$820
Realized+$696
Unrealized+$200
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses28 / 20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage456d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 97¢ $500 $701 +$201 (+40%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Drake release an album by October 24? Dec 03 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Dec 03 $201 +$179 +89%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15? Oct 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025? Oct 08 $100 +$17 +17%
Bird flu vaccine in 2025? Oct 08 $100 +$7 +7%
Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? Oct 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Canada tariffs on China in effect before July? Jul 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jul 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel military action against Iran before July? Jul 05 $100 −$100 -100%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jul 05 $100 +$18 +18%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jul 05 $100 +$21 +21%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jul 05 $100 +$27 +27%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jul 05 $50 +$102 +203%
Will BTS announce a new world tour in 2025? Jul 05 $100 +$58 +58%
US-China trade deal before June? May 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $100 +$133 +133%
New Pope before July? May 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Earthquake 7.0 or above in April? May 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? May 09 $100 −$100 -100%
New Pope in 2025? May 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025? May 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? May 09 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? May 09 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Trump pardon 1,250-1,499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? May 09 $100 +$27 +27%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio May 09 $100 +$55 +55%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 09 $1,200 +$744 +62%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy in April? Apr 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? Apr 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? Apr 23 $100 −$85 -85%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease? Apr 23 $100 +$28 +28%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
700+ Measles cases in U.S. before May? Apr 09 $100 +$24 +24%
Will Trump lower tariffs on EU in April? Apr 09 $100 +$160 +160%
Trump approval >45% on May 1? Apr 07 $106 +$155 +147%
Avalanche vs. Blackhawks Apr 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "April Fool's" by April 4? Apr 05 $20 +$9 +45%
Bucks vs. 76ers Apr 05 $100 +$19 +19%
Bruins vs. Canadiens Apr 05 $100 +$54 +54%
Will Trump announce tariffs on Canada on April 2? Apr 05 $200 +$436 +218%
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025? Apr 03 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Sydney Sweeney break up with her fiancé before April? Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $330b on March 31? Apr 02 $100 +$27 +27%
Wisconsin Supreme Court election: Susan Crawford vs. Brad Schimel Apr 02 $1,000 +$162 +16%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Mar 31 $1,000 +$442 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $505 1h
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? BUY No 53¢ $17 256d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? BUY No 53¢ $24 256d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? BUY No 53¢ $25 256d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? BUY No 53¢ $24 256d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? BUY No 53¢ $3 256d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? BUY No 53¢ $7 256d
Will Drake release an album by October 24? BUY No 97¢ $100 256d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? BUY No 53¢ $11 256d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? BUY No 53¢ $12 256d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? BUY No 53¢ $15 256d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? BUY No 53¢ $64 256d
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15? BUY No 31¢ $100 256d
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $117 256d
Bird flu vaccine in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $107 256d
Will India invade Pakistan before July? BUY No 83¢ $100 408d
US-China trade deal before June? BUY No 67¢ $100 424d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 72¢ $100 424d
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY Yes 80¢ $200 424d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? BUY Yes 72¢ $100 424d
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? BUY No 60¢ $100 424d
700+ Measles cases in U.S. before May? SELL Yes 97¢ $124 437d
Will Trump lower tariffs on EU in April? SELL Yes 84¢ $260 437d
Will BTS announce a new world tour in 2025? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 437d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 79¢ $100 437d
Trump approval >45% on May 1? SELL No 77¢ $261 439d
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025? BUY No 48¢ $200 444d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease? BUY Yes 78¢ $100 444d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $820.13 · official $820.13 (match) · 111 history records