Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
65 0x65b5…aa71 sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$5,674 (+61%) realized +$5,688 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,168per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2,831now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$6,250
other 29% −$750
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +19.3% +8.0% 33% 33% +72.2%
≤30d 4 +36.0% +23.1% 50% 50% +72.1%
≤90d 4 +36.0% +23.1% 50% 50% +72.1%
all 4 +36.0% +23.1% 50% 50% +72.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.1% 50% +72.1%
10% +11.3% 50% +55.7%
15% +0.5% 50% +40.6%
20% -9.3% 50% +26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +90% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,129 vs −$372 · ×8.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.41 per $1 lost it wins $8.41
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$2,831
Realized+$5,688
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage10d
Avg bet$1,168
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 56¢ $1,210 $1,206 −$5 (-0%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $1,060 $1,050 −$10 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 28¢ 28¢ $550 $550 +$0 (+0%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? No 74¢ 74¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,384 −$4 -0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,130 −$740 -66%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,913 +$6,196 +158%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $73 +$63 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $4 1m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $1 1m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $64 1m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $6 1m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $280 4m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 27¢ $270 18m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $280 21m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $25 26m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $285 53m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $285 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $530 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $530 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $25 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $13 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 74¢ $740 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $3 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $6 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $236 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $254 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $700 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $673 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $2 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $2 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $690 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $390 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $213 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $48 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $4 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,830.87 · official $2,831.08 (match) · 45 history records