Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65b5…eb61 world 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate23%22W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$10
other 27% −$6
sports 17% −$6
politics 17% −$2
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$13
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.6% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 27 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 73 -0.3% -9.8% 26% 1% -9.5%
all 95 -0.5% -10.0% 23% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses22 / 73
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage333d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $146 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $133 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $166 $0 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $14 −$1 -6%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $132 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $264 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $266 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $131 +$2 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $135 −$1 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $406 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $131 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $254 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $60 −$2 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $417 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $50 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $134 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $144 +$3 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $60 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $7 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $216 +$12 +5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $119 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $119 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $267 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $134 −$2 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $395 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $122 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $135 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $124 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $4 $0 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $78 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $135 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 02 $134 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $369 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $122 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $154 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $43 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $125 −$1 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $126 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $264 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $126 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $126 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $278 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $163 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $43 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $103 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $146 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $40 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $92 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $133 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $133 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $132 19h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $4 45h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $9 45h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $0 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $2 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $4 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $2 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $2 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $1 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $2 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $132 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $132 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $132 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $132 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $44 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $44 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $147 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $147 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $109 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $24 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $131 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $131 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $131 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.00 (match) · 399 history records