Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:54:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

65
0x65b6…8b4c
other · 195 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,596 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,550 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized−$1,550
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses44 / 149
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)193 / 195
History coverage148d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 2 History 193 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$123
14 days−$137
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-6%)
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Curaçao leading at halftime? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Spread: CA Osasuna (-1.5) CA Osasuna 30¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-04? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Elche CF (-1.5) Elche CF 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Club Atlético de Madrid 26¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Over 27¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Spread: Andorra (-1.5) Andorra 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Team to Take First Corner Czechia 46¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-05? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5) Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 32¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $28 +$35 +121%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$9 +84%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $27 +$12 +44%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $28 −$28 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $17 −$17 -98%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 +$53 +864%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $15 +$37 +240%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $14 −$14 -98%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $15 +$31 +204%
Will Comoros win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $31 −$31 -98%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $22 +$33 +149%
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $11 −$11 -97%
Spread: Denmark (-1.5) Jun 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Italy (-2.5) Jun 07 $12 −$12 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 07 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Andorra (-1.5) Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $62 −$60 -98%
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5) Apr 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: CA Osasuna (-1.5) Apr 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-1.5) Apr 05 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $40 +$75 +188%
Spread: Real Oviedo (-2.5) Apr 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 04 $4 −$4 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $44 +$20 +45%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Apr 04 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $22 −$22 -99%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) Apr 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5) Apr 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Elche CF (-1.5) Apr 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-23? Apr 03 $350 −$350 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Feb 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 70% −$1,897
sports 29% +$347
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 11m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 13m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 27¢ $11 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $63 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $19 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 53¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $28 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $39 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $27 2h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 32¢ $28 16h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Team to Take First Corner BUY Czechia 46¢ $25 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 24¢ $19 4d
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $20 4d
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4d
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 5d
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -20.2% -27.8% 23% 23% -33.7%
≤30d 34 -27.3% -34.2% 21% 21% -35.7%
≤90d 49 -40.7% -46.3% 18% 18% -60.0%
all 193 -19.7% -27.4% 23% 23% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 23% -20.4%
10% -34.3% 23% -28.0%
15% -40.7% 23% -34.9%
20% -46.5% 20% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.64 · official $47.64 (match) · 408 history records