Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65b9…4ece politics 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%6W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$18
other 36% −$5
sports 17% −$6
culture 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -30.4% -37.0% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 9 -15.0% -23.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 10 -13.6% -21.8% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 78 -9.5% -18.1% 8% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -25.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -33.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses6 / 72
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage272d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $141 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $76 $0 -1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2 $0 -21%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $72 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $4 $0 -12%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $69 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $73 −$1 -1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $81 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $75 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $3 $0 -14%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $152 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $3 $0 -10%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 20 $74 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 01 $74 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 31 $2 −$1 -41%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 24 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $75 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 17 $75 $0 +0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $77 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 14 $1 $0 -50%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 13 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $82 −$2 -2%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $78 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $78 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 07 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 04 $1 $0 -11%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 03 $78 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 30 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $76 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $80 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 27 $76 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 24 $76 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $3 $0 -11%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 21 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $83 $0 -1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 16 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $1 $0 -33%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 14 $78 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $79 $0 +0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 11 $1 $0 -50%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 06 $161 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 1h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 32h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 32h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 4d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $68 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $68 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $69 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $70 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $69 16d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $69 19d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 19d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 20d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $73 20d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $73 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 38d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $75 105d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 109d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.82 · official $0.82 (match) · 379 history records