Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65c4…7ea4 crypto 1235 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,367 (-25%) realized −$1,362 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate59%726W / 496L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day64.9pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days−$6
30 days−$566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$255
crypto 35% −$263
other 8% −$54
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +45.5% +31.6% 100% 100% +31.6%
≤30d 1222 -13.8% -22.0% 59% 40% -19.3%
≤90d 1222 -13.8% -22.0% 59% 40% -19.3%
all 1222 -13.8% -22.0% 59% 40% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 40% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 30% -27.0%
15% -36.3% 24% -34.0%
20% -42.5% 18% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$1,362
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses726 / 496
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1222 / 1235
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day64.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 304 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $43 +$20 +46%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-05-22? Jun 07 $10 $0 -3%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 01 $20 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +17%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +81%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +28%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +28%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +25%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +37%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +69%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +72%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +69%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +37%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $13 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 46¢ $5 8d
Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-05-22? SELL No 52¢ $9 8d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 46¢ $6 8d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 47¢ $3 8d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 47¢ $1 8d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 47¢ $7 8d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 47¢ $2 8d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 68¢ $20 11d
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 18d
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 18d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 18d
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 18d
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.74 · official $54.74 (match) · 3500 history records