Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:50:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65c5…67a2 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$86 (+10%) realized +$101 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$22
other 34% +$34
sports 23% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -0.9% -10.4% 75% 50% -14.8%
≤30d 16 -0.9% -10.4% 75% 50% -14.8%
≤90d 16 -0.9% -10.4% 75% 50% -14.8%
all 16 -0.9% -10.4% 75% 50% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 50% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 38% -22.9%
15% -26.8% 25% -30.4%
20% -34.0% 0% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$43 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$101
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 52¢ $62 $47 −$15 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $76 −$14 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$24 +47%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $101 −$81 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$9 +34%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $52 +$8 +16%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $50 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$22 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$14 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 43m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 17¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 3h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $50 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $101 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 79¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $52 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.83 · official $46.83 (match) · 40 history records