Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:49:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65c5…611d crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+6%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day84.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +6.8% -3.4% 60% 40% -4.6%
≤30d 5 +6.8% -3.4% 60% 40% -4.6%
≤90d 5 +6.8% -3.4% 60% 40% -4.6%
all 5 +6.8% -3.4% 60% 40% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.4% 40% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 20% -13.8%
15% -21.1% 20% -22.1%
20% -28.8% 0% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
16.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day84.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$4 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records