Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65c7…1e1b crypto 198 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$168 (+2%) realized +$175 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate39%76W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$44
14 days+$6
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$75
other 25% +$59
sports 25% +$12
world 4% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -20.8% -28.3% 48% 26% -11.7%
≤30d 194 -6.2% -15.1% 39% 28% -9.2%
≤90d 194 -6.2% -15.1% 39% 28% -9.2%
all 194 -6.2% -15.1% 39% 28% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 28% -9.2%
10% -23.3% 26% -17.9%
15% -30.7% 23% -25.9%
20% -37.5% 20% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$175
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses76 / 118
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)194 / 198
History coverage30d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 57¢ 44¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 58¢ 40¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? No 24¢ 19¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$3 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $3 +$2 +69%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +52%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +125%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $10 +$11 +107%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$7 -71%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $20 +$5 +26%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Second half draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $200 +$11 +6%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -18%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$4 -22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $20 −$10 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $11 −$5 -48%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 +$7 +7%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $100 +$8 +8%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $200 +$13 +6%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $21 −$2 -12%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$17 -84%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +233%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? SELL Yes 99¢ $103 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 86¢ $14 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 24¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $16 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 57¢ $9 23h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 87¢ $0 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 25h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL No 30¢ $3 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 15¢ $2 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL No 15¢ $2 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No $1 44h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 45h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 45h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 45h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 47h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $11 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.35 · official $18.35 (match) · 499 history records