Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:16:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x65c9…cf56 sports 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,918 (-2%) realized −$1,855 · open −$63
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate68%104W / 49L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$573per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$1,139est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$426now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$556
7 days−$556
14 days−$556
30 days−$2,350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,610
other 4% −$338
world 2% −$463
culture 1% +$31
crypto 0% −$76
tech 0% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -10.2% -18.7% 52% 38% -17.9%
≤30d 153 +6.3% -3.8% 68% 52% -11.9%
≤90d 153 +6.3% -3.8% 68% 52% -11.9%
all 153 +6.3% -3.8% 68% 52% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 52% -11.9%
10% -13.0% 39% -20.4%
15% ← realistic here -21.4% 21% -28.1%
20% -29.1% 13% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$702) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$333 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$426
Realized−$1,855
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses104 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$1,139
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage27d
Avg bet$573
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 65¢ 56¢ $489 $426 −$63 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $345 +$150 +43%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $223 −$175 -78%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$7 -46%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $23 +$19 +82%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $71 −$69 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $923 −$43 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $291 +$18 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $192 +$112 +58%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $48 +$10 +22%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $78 +$7 +9%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $92 +$41 +45%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $150 +$15 +10%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 Jun 17 $48 −$6 -12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $299 +$92 +31%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $168 −$165 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $133 +$36 +27%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $259 −$127 -49%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $158 +$102 +65%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2,409 −$509 -21%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $1,985 −$1,957 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $949 −$936 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $1,765 −$24 -1%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 03 $969 −$451 -47%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $501 −$249 -50%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $856 −$291 -34%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $1,293 −$541 -42%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $961 +$127 +13%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $187 +$103 +55%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $613 −$290 -47%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $702 −$78 -11%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $530 +$83 +16%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $417 +$45 +11%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $195 +$52 +27%
Game Handicap: TT (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 02 $474 +$226 +48%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $267 +$176 +66%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $393 +$72 +18%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $388 +$59 +15%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $672 +$463 +69%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $860 −$588 -68%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Falcons Force (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eu Jun 01 $45 +$15 +33%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) Jun 01 $119 −$118 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $615 +$152 +25%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $457 −$136 -30%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 01 $878 +$521 +59%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 01 $511 +$13 +2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $89 −$36 -40%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 01 $204 +$41 +20%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $321 +$35 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $494 56m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $494 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $345 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $48 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $223 4h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes $8 4h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 24¢ $42 4h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 5h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 5h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 5h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 5h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 5h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 5h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 5h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 5h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 90¢ $21 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 90¢ $40 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 88¢ $500 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $1 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $338 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $222 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $309 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 68¢ $319 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $291 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $363 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 78¢ $58 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $48 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 82¢ $85 7h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $133 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $425.71 · official $425.78 (match) · 644 history records