Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:05:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65cc…fbdf crypto 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (143 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$170 (-4%) realized −$168 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%34W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day143.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$169
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (143 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -6.7% -15.6% 49% 49% -13.1%
≤30d 70 -6.7% -15.6% 49% 49% -13.1%
≤90d 70 -6.7% -15.6% 49% 49% -13.1%
all 70 -6.7% -15.6% 49% 49% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover143.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 49% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 46% -21.4%
15% -31.1% 46% -29.0%
20% -37.8% 40% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$47 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$168
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses34 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage1d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day143.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 53¢ 50¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $63 −$63 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$93 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$74 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$51 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $73 −$73 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$52 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $62 −$25 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$58 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$62 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $63 +$51 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $87 +$48 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $85 +$71 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $99 −$77 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $96 +$65 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $97 −$95 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $114 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$66 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$22 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$18 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $93 +$62 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $81 +$67 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $83 +$81 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $107 −$104 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$63 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $130 −$125 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$40 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$52 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $130 +$24 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$36 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$46 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $117 −$81 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$15 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$26 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $108 −$103 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$26 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$34 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $81 −$77 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$5 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$36 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $37 +$16 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $197 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $125 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $51 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $62 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $63 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $63 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $62 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $37 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $62 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $62 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $62 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $63 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $135 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $96 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.83 · official $82.83 (match) · 161 history records