Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:38:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65d3…08b6 other 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+1%) realized +$49 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate90%163W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$21
crypto 17% +$11
tech 16% +$5
world 16% +$26
politics 8% +$2
sports 5% +$21
finance 2% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 17 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 84 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 4% -6.8%
all 182 -4.3% -13.4% 90% 12% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 12% -8.8%
10% -21.7% 9% -17.5%
15% -29.2% 5% -25.5%
20% -36.2% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses163 / 19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)182 / 185
History coverage589d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $87 $87 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 100¢ 99¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? No 99¢ 98¢ $54 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag Jun 28 $3 $0 +3%
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $343 +$2 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $339 +$4 +1%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $328 +$1 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $310 +$3 +1%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $3 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $305 +$7 +2%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $267 +$40 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $258 +$7 +3%
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $258 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $258 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $251 +$9 +4%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 06 $237 +$20 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 04 $52 +$7 +13%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in April? May 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in April? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of April? May 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $420 end of April? May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? May 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 01 $3 $0 +1%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 me May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $300 in April? May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April meeti May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin May 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti May 01 $6 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $12 $0 +3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 01 $181 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 28 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $17 +$4 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? BUY No 99¢ $54 51m
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $63 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY No 100¢ $87 9h
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 97¢ $3 23h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 2d
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 99¢ $343 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $339 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $328 29d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 99¢ $310 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 94¢ $3 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $305 39d
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $267 43d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 98¢ $258 44d
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 100¢ $258 45d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 47d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $258 47d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $251 50d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $4 51d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 52d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 53d
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 54d
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $93 54d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 54d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 55d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 55d
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 87¢ $144 55d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 99¢ $2 56d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? BUY Yes 88¢ $52 56d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.78 · official $202.86 (match) · 554 history records