Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:25:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

65
0x65d4…b7e3
other · 225 markets active 2h ago
8.5score
+$14,034 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13,514 · open +$520
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,659
Realized+$13,514
Unrealized+$520
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses166 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)211 / 225
History coverage228d
Avg bet$550
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit43%
Chart Positions 14 History 211 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,366
14 days+$1,366
30 days+$1,873
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 78¢ 98¢ $1,000 $1,244 +$244 (+24%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 67¢ 63¢ $766 $721 −$45 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 78¢ 76¢ $700 $675 −$25 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 84¢ 98¢ $500 $582 +$82 (+16%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $573 $567 −$6 (-1%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 66¢ 92¢ $400 $559 +$159 (+40%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 80¢ $500 $483 −$17 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 82¢ 90¢ $300 $329 +$29 (+10%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 81¢ 85¢ $300 $315 +$15 (+5%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 85¢ $200 $283 +$83 (+41%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 69¢ 75¢ $200 $217 +$17 (+9%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 83¢ 86¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 69¢ 61¢ $200 $177 −$23 (-12%)
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? No 57¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? No 83¢ 0¢ $199 $0 −$199 (-100%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? No 67¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? No 84¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 11 $200 +$78 +39%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31? Jun 11 $300 +$66 +22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 11 $307 +$77 +25%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Jun 11 $305 +$83 +27%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May? Jun 11 $303 +$92 +30%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 11 $300 +$117 +39%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 11 $403 +$76 +19%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 11 $420 +$80 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $670 +$77 +12%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? Jun 11 $2,348 +$279 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 11 $2,800 +$542 +19%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in May? May 29 $201 −$139 -69%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 28 $1,856 +$590 +32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 27 $1,431 +$183 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $200 +$39 +19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $2,197 +$136 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,860 +$338 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 20 $1,433 +$283 +20%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? May 20 $200 −$191 -95%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 19 $201 +$28 +14%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 15 $204 −$200 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 15 $606 −$428 -71%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 15 $205 −$131 -64%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 13 $201 −$199 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 13 $500 +$115 +23%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? May 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Will BNB dip to $500 in April? May 04 $2 +$5 +270%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026? May 04 $100 +$41 +41%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in April? May 04 $100 +$145 +145%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30? May 04 $200 +$44 +22%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30? May 04 $200 +$46 +23%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026? May 04 $200 +$53 +26%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? May 04 $300 +$101 +34%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in April? May 04 $203 +$215 +106%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026? May 04 $400 +$149 +37%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? May 04 $750 +$155 +21%
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026? May 04 $935 +$185 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 04 $1,848 +$287 +16%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $729 +$131 +18%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $1,219 +$575 +47%
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $1,523 +$375 +25%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 29 $200 +$47 +23%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 29 $200 +$42 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 29 $317 +$62 +20%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $300 +$38 +12%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in April 2026? Apr 29 $200 +$77 +38%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Apr 29 $200 +$42 +21%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $200 +$39 +19%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 29 $150 +$39 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% +$5,698
world 22% +$5,382
crypto 17% +$3,258
finance 6% −$524
tech 0% +$50
sports 0% +$63
politics 0% +$97
culture 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $100 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $200 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $200 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $159 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $83 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $301 7h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 83¢ $201 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $500 7h
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY No 69¢ $204 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 81¢ $304 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 82¢ $304 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $201 2d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $200 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $66 15d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in May? SELL No 27¢ $62 15d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? BUY No 94¢ $1,034 16d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $400 16d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $504 16d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? BUY No 90¢ $504 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $2,446 16d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $307 17d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $302 17d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $504 17d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $503 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 99¢ $1,614 17d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $270 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL No 99¢ $239 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 87¢ $2,300 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +13.6% +2.8% 92% 92% +4.9%
≤30d 24 -4.8% -13.8% 75% 71% -0.7%
≤90d 109 +2.9% -6.9% 73% 72% -1.1%
all 211 +8.5% -1.9% 79% 61% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 61% +0.9%
10% -11.2% 33% -8.8%
15% -19.8% 14% -17.6%
20% -27.7% 7% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,658.80 · official $6,660.25 (match) · 888 history records