Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:25:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
65 0x65d4…9a33 world 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL +$55 (+2%) realized +$53 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate44%29W / 37L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$19
14 days+$20
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$6
sports 24% +$11
other 17% +$16
politics 11% +$19
economics 10% +$3
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.5% -6.4% 62% 12% -4.4%
≤30d 24 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 31 -0.9% -10.4% 32% 6% -9.2%
all 66 +9.8% -0.6% 44% 14% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 14% -7.6%
10% -10.1% 9% -16.5%
15% -18.8% 8% -24.5%
20% -26.8% 6% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.91 per $1 lost it wins $2.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses29 / 37
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage520d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 67¢ 94¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $67 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $86 +$7 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $44 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $74 +$9 +12%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $86 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $44 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $1 $0 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $92 −$11 -12%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $7 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $45 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $6 −$2 -42%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $5 $0 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 19 $1 $0 -7%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $248 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $246 +$2 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 24 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $270 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $38 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? May 03 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Malik Beasley win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 05 $17 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $37 $0 -0%
Solana above $130 on April 4? Apr 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 03 $56 −$2 -3%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Apr 02 $56 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $56 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $17 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $5 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $6 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 38h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $15 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $8 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $27 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $12 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $31 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $5 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $47 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $46 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $44 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 71¢ $2 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $16 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $40 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $44 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $44 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $23 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.71 · official $18.15 (match) · 218 history records