Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:59:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65d4…4e71 sports 567 markets active 6d ago coverage 191d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 191d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,389 (+2%) realized +$8,389 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate76%430W / 138L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$922per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$502est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 191d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$354
other 4% +$660
culture 0% +$207
politics 0% −$290
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -57.7% -61.7% 40% 0% -78.4%
≤30d 24 -13.9% -22.1% 67% 54% -43.2%
≤90d 164 -5.8% -14.8% 70% 54% -14.0%
all 568 -1.2% -10.6% 76% 52% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 52% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 27% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 16% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 10% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$1,343) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$504 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8,389
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses430 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$502
Open positions0
Markets (closed)568 / 567
History coverage191d ⚠
Avg bet$922
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 568 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Celtics vs. Raptors Jun 17 $3,656 −$3,630 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $286 −$285 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $1,418 −$473 -33%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 11 $1,078 +$72 +7%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $72 +$3 +4%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $1,001 +$149 +15%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $999 +$19 +2%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 08 $1,075 +$226 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $780 −$780 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $590 +$250 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $382 −$379 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 30 $2,101 −$1,012 -48%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $789 −$694 -88%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 28 $221 +$24 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Alexander Zverev May 27 $1,780 +$220 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $266 +$135 +51%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 26 $204 +$61 +30%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $123 +$83 +67%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $65 +$58 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $48 +$16 +34%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 21 $30 +$12 +42%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton May 19 $570 −$570 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Justin Engel vs Ugo Humbert May 19 $541 +$77 +14%
Connecticut Sun vs. Portland Fire May 19 $401 +$49 +12%
Toronto Tempo vs. Los Angeles Sparks May 18 $1,355 +$55 +4%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $244 −$244 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $1,487 +$261 +18%
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever May 15 $201 −$200 -99%
Chicago Sky vs. Golden State Valkyries May 15 $447 −$129 -29%
Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo May 14 $200 +$129 +64%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 13 $178 +$22 +12%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $168 +$10 +6%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $106 +$60 +57%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 10 $2,080 −$1,966 -94%
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers May 10 $3 +$3 +109%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Laura Siegemund May 09 $110 −$110 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea May 09 $1,917 −$1,917 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $403 +$118 +29%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $1,691 +$209 +12%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $66 +$4 +7%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $1,372 +$261 +19%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $1,189 +$194 +16%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $746 +$254 +34%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 05 $837 +$93 +11%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $696 +$132 +19%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Felix Auger-Aliassime May 02 $380 −$380 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev May 02 $2,300 +$200 +9%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $1,680 +$318 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 92¢ $286 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Connecticut Sun 4¢ $26 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Connecticut Sun 50¢ $500 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $28 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $4 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $50 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $14 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $5 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $40 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $45 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $23 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $2 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $45 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $48 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $13 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $3 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $18 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $48 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $15 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $6 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $20 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $12 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $15 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 27¢ $135 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 78¢ $741 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 78¢ $39 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 75¢ $3 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 56¢ $74 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 56¢ $1 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 56¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records