Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65d5…bca3 politics 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 36L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$465per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$11
world 24% −$4
other 20% −$3
tech 6% −$1
economics 6% −$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 37 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$981) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage92d
Avg bet$465
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 27 $47 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 27 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 27 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Cameron Norrie be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 27 $1,071 $0 -0%
Will Ons Jabeur be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 26 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 26 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 26 $54 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $2,002 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will Colorado Rapids win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i May 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary e May 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $78 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 21 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 20 $981 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will Sung Il-jong win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e May 20 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $902 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont Apr 06 $115 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026? Apr 06 $39 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $147 $0 -0%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Mar 27 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 27 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in April 2026? Mar 27 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 99¢ $47 32m
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 42m
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 49m
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 1h
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,071 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,050 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $701 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $296 1h
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 2h
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 99¢ $37 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $998 2h
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL No 100¢ $54 18h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,046 18h
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY No 100¢ $18 18h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,014 18h
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY No 100¢ $12 18h
Will Cameron Norrie be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY No 100¢ $24 19h
Will Cameron Norrie be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $160 19h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 19h
Will Ons Jabeur be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $754 19h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 19h
Will Ons Jabeur be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $318 19h
Will Ons Jabeur be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,073 20h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,086 34h
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $54 34h
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $18 34h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,051 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records