Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:44:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

65
0x65d5…a9cc
politics · 108 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$100 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$100 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses76 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage227d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 0 History 108 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) FURIA 67¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? Yes 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Jaguars vs. Texans Jaguars 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BNK FEARX 41¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Aftyn Behn win TN-7 Special Election? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs LOUD 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) Tundra Esports 15¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Down 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during "60 Minutes" on November 2? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Syria President events on November 10? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Army vs. Navy Army 70¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump say "Eight wars" during Syria President events on November 10? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $71 +$5 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $86 +$13 +15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $88 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $33 +$7 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +148%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $39 +$7 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -62%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $70 +$5 +6%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $75 −$29 -38%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Ass" during WEF Address on January 21? Jan 21 $18 +$5 +29%
Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Khamenei" during WEF Address on January 21 Jan 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during W Jan 21 $18 +$10 +53%
Will Trump say "Denmark" or "Norway" during WEF Address on January 21? Jan 21 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Trump say "Affordability" during WEF Address on January 21? Jan 21 $6 +$3 +44%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during WEF Address on January 21? Jan 21 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5? Jan 03 $54 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Jan 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conferenc Jan 03 $61 −$56 -92%
Will Donald Trump say "China" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference o Jan 03 $86 +$34 +39%
Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" at least ten times during his Mar-a- Jan 03 $24 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 31? Dec 30 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Dec 30 $17 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 2PM ET Dec 30 $15 +$1 +5%
Nothing Ever Happens: December Dec 30 $14 +$1 +6%
Maryland Terrapins vs. Virginia Cavaliers Dec 21 $14 $0 +1%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. St. John's Red Storm Dec 21 $13 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs illwill (BO3) Dec 20 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Norwich City FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Estoril Praia win on 2025-12-19? Dec 19 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2025-12-19? Dec 19 $34 +$3 +8%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 19 $34 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) Dec 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Dartmouth Big Green vs. Sacred Heart Pioneers Dec 19 $47 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 9INE (BO3) Dec 19 $20 +$2 +8%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Dec 19 $40 $0 -1%
Jackson State Tigers vs. Hampton Pirates Dec 19 $57 +$4 +7%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO3) Dec 18 $64 +$16 +24%
Will Ivan Demidov win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy? Dec 18 $1 −$1 -91%
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025? Dec 18 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Dec 18 $1 $0 +13%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Dec 18 $1 $0 +4%
Army vs. Navy Dec 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Dec 13 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 45% −$11
politics 24% −$81
other 14% −$12
weather 9% +$19
crypto 6% −$13
tech 1% −$2
world 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp Blue 96¢ $50 4m
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp Blue 96¢ $11 4m
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp Blue 96¢ $10 5m
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp Blue 96¢ $5 5m
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 90¢ $71 9m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $99 26m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 86¢ $54 30m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 86¢ $13 30m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 86¢ $1 30m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 86¢ $18 30m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 94¢ $94 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 88¢ $42 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 88¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 88¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 88¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 88¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 88¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 4h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 19h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOUD 2¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 84¢ $39 20h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.5% -7.2% 75% 33% -6.8%
≤30d 12 +2.5% -7.2% 75% 33% -6.8%
≤90d 13 -5.3% -14.4% 69% 31% -10.4%
all 108 -9.8% -18.3% 70% 31% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 31% -15.3%
10% -26.2% 19% -23.4%
15% -33.3% 10% -30.8%
20% -39.8% 5% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 418 history records