Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:28:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65d8…acc7 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day59.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$380
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -32.8% -39.2% 29% 29% -32.7%
≤30d 24 -32.8% -39.2% 29% 29% -32.7%
≤90d 24 -32.8% -39.2% 29% 29% -32.7%
all 24 -32.8% -39.2% 29% 29% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.2% 29% -32.7%
10% ← realistic here -45.0% 25% -39.1%
15% -50.3% 12% -45.0%
20% -55.2% 12% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$39 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day59.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $133 +$42 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $89 −$15 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $103 −$25 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $17 −$10 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $45 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $83 +$25 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $207 −$202 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $203 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $89 −$78 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $98 +$147 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $106 −$98 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$36 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$14 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $11 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $207 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $197 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $203 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $245 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records