trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 14% | 0% | -10.5% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 14% | 0% | -10.5% |
| all | 27 | -3.8% | -13.0% | 44% | 0% | -10.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.0% | 0% | -10.0% |
| 10% | -21.3% | 0% | -18.6% |
| 15% | -28.9% | 0% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -35.9% | 0% | -33.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 72¢ | $41 | $41 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 17 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 27 | $37 | +$1 | +3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 26 | $44 | −$3 | -6% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 24 | $3 | $0 | -4% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 23 | $23 | $0 | -1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 23 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? | Dec 15 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Jun 21 | $1 | $0 | -14% |
| Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe | Jun 11 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 09 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 08 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Isack Hadjar finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? | Jun 08 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6? | Jun 07 | $22 | +$2 | +7% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 06 | $21 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | Jun 03 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Trump x Xi talk before June? | Jun 02 | $23 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Hillary Clinton be named in Epstein files? | Jun 01 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? | May 31 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in 2025? | May 31 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? | May 30 | $26 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Solana dip to $130 in May? | May 29 | $26 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suri | May 28 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? | May 28 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | May 27 | $26 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? | May 24 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kafka Hibino win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025 | May 23 | $25 | $0 | +0% |