Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x65db…73c4 other 63 markets active 11h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate23%14W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 77% −$14
politics 12% −$7
other 6% −$3
sports 2% +$1
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% +$6
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 50 +3.1% -6.7% 22% 14% -9.5%
all 62 +1.9% -7.8% 23% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 11% -9.6%
10% -16.6% 11% -18.3%
15% -24.7% 11% -26.2%
20% -32.1% 11% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage614d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $93 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $74 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $9 +$6 +65%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $75 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $70 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $75 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $74 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $74 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 24 $76 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $71 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $151 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $69 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $9 +$6 +75%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $6 +$8 +146%
Senators vs. Panthers Apr 06 $35 −$35 -100%
Penguins vs. Islanders Apr 06 $33 −$33 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-02? Apr 06 $11 +$6 +55%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $22 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 06 $45 $0 +0%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Mar 30 $21 +$14 +64%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 27 $21 +$30 +144%
Raptors vs. Suns Mar 25 $18 +$20 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 11h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 12h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 32h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 36h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 11d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 13d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $15 14d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $15 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 15d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 17d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 17d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 19d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 19d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 21d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $16 24d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 24d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.52 · official $49.52 (match) · 283 history records