Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x65dd…4664 other 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 774d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,352 (+3%) realized +$1,484 · open −$132
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate72%77W / 30L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$1,879now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$239
14 days−$725
30 days−$812
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$857
crypto 12% +$348
sports 1% +$78
world 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +10.0% -0.4% 67% 67% +8.9%
≤30d 10 -27.6% -34.5% 20% 20% -33.6%
≤90d 35 -5.9% -14.9% 57% 51% -11.6%
all 107 +2.5% -7.3% 72% 54% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 54% -6.6%
10% -16.1% 18% -15.5%
15% -24.2% 9% -23.7%
20% -31.7% 7% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$601) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$126 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

774d coverage
Net worth$1,879
Realized+$1,484
Unrealized−$132
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses77 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)107 / 118
History coverage774d
Avg bet$382
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $580 $575 −$5 (-1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 73¢ 87¢ $256 $304 +$49 (+19%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 77¢ 82¢ $270 $289 +$19 (+7%)
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $301 $270 −$32 (-10%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $150 $159 +$9 (+6%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $138 $151 +$13 (+9%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $127 $54 −$73 (-58%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $53 $37 −$16 (-30%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $111 $15 −$96 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $104 −$12 -12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $768 +$206 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $304 +$45 +15%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Jun 17 $292 −$292 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $348 −$234 -67%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $188 −$9 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $720 −$427 -59%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 05 $188 −$13 -7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $127 −$74 -58%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 27 $52 +$28 +55%
Nexus FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 22 $318 +$32 +10%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 11 $35 −$4 -12%
Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 01 $244 +$107 +44%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 01 $521 +$84 +16%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 30 $288 +$31 +11%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $140 +$34 +24%
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 30 $502 −$49 -10%
Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 30 $453 −$38 -8%
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 29 $174 −$77 -44%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 25 $86 +$14 +16%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 22 $68 −$67 -98%
Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 17 $146 +$11 +8%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 15 $224 +$35 +15%
Over $8M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 14 $103 +$14 +13%
OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 09 $76 −$43 -56%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $134 +$16 +12%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $308 +$42 +14%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $334 +$111 +33%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 02 $652 +$148 +23%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $72 +$20 +27%
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $272 +$50 +18%
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $453 +$93 +20%
Based FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 30 $72 +$27 +37%
Perle Labs FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 27 $56 +$11 +20%
Perle Labs FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 26 $1,892 −$1,675 -89%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 25 $280 +$70 +25%
Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 25 $318 +$58 +18%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 25 $578 +$104 +18%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 25 $688 +$37 +5%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 22 $516 +$12 +2%
Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 20 $216 +$34 +16%
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 16 $96 −$4 -4%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 07 $266 +$43 +16%
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 07 $591 +$108 +18%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 07 $601 +$119 +20%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 05 $836 +$81 +10%
Over $2M committed to the Cambria public sale? Mar 05 $298 +$52 +18%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 02 $25 −$20 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 58¢ $150 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $587 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $92 2d
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $67 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 77¢ $271 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $114 9d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $179 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 37¢ $293 11d
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 71¢ $41 11d
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 11d
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 11d
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 70¢ $52 12d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 12d
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 12d
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 72¢ $33 18d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 20d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 20d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 78¢ $39 20d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 20d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 20d
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 72¢ $21 20d
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 71¢ $169 21d
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 73¢ $110 21d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 22d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 23d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 87¢ $12 23d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 87¢ $23 23d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 23d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 87¢ $134 23d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 87¢ $24 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,878.75 · official $2,023.85 · 798 history records