Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65df…c6b7 crypto 420 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,328 (-30%) realized −$4,328 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%174W / 246L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day82.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,664
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -34.0% -40.3% 29% 29% -37.8%
≤30d 166 -30.4% -37.0% 35% 28% -39.7%
≤90d 420 -16.4% -24.4% 41% 33% -20.0%
all 420 -16.4% -24.4% 41% 33% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 33% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 23% -27.6%
15% -38.2% 18% -34.6%
20% -44.3% 13% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,328
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses174 / 246
Open positions0
Markets (closed)420 / 420
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day82.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 420 Trades
no open positions (73 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$7 +335%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$19 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$4 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$7 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$12 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$17 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$13 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$13 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $71 −$68 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $45 −$43 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $33 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records