Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
65 0x65e6…6400 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$131 (+14%) realized +$134 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$757now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$127
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+48.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +63.9% +48.3% 100% 50% +48.7%
≤30d 2 +63.9% +48.3% 100% 50% +48.7%
≤90d 2 +63.9% +48.3% 100% 50% +48.7%
all 2 +63.9% +48.3% 100% 50% +48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +48.3% 50% +48.7%
10% +34.1% 50% +34.4%
15% +21.2% 50% +21.4%
20% +9.3% 50% +9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +64% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$757
Realized+$134
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)2 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $400 $398 −$2 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$120 +118%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$10 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 46m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 47m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 51m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 51m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $402 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $18 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $222 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 27h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 34h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 34h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 34h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 34h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 34h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $757.25 · official $757.25 (match) · 27 history records