Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65e6…42dc sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,579 (+72%) realized +$6,667 · open −$88
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days−$122
14 days−$624
30 days−$748
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$4,290
crypto 22% +$2,049
other 2% +$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -92.7% -93.4% 0% 0% -91.7%
≤90d 8 -45.7% -50.9% 12% 12% -60.8%
all 29 +5.4% -4.6% 41% 41% +55.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 41% +55.9%
10% -13.8% 41% +41.0%
15% -22.1% 31% +27.3%
20% -29.7% 31% +14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +48% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$706 vs −$112 · ×6.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.43 per $1 lost it wins $4.43
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,667
Unrealized−$88
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage233d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 48¢ $89 $0 −$88 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $125 −$122 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $315 −$281 -89%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $126 −$84 -67%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $66 −$64 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $75 −$73 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 22 $126 −$124 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $253 −$141 -56%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $92 +$227 +246%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 20 $127 −$127 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 19 $197 −$197 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) Mar 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 17? Nov 17 $305 +$260 +85%
Solana Up or Down on November 9? Nov 10 $284 +$176 +62%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $217 +$133 +61%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $1,813 +$1,904 +105%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 09 $936 +$309 +33%
Solana Up or Down - November 8, 1PM ET Nov 09 $202 +$266 +132%
Solana Up or Down - November 8, 2PM ET Nov 08 $112 −$112 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 5, 4AM ET Nov 05 $51 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on November 4? Nov 04 $913 +$1,579 +173%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 4? Nov 04 $119 −$119 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 02 $100 +$160 +159%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 02 $570 +$180 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $915 +$310 +34%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $561 +$2,969 +529%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $289 −$289 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $17 −$16 -94%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $137 −$120 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 38¢ $21 38m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 52¢ $69 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $125 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL FUT Esports $34 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $25 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $25 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $10 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $51 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $153 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $51 8d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 12¢ $42 8d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $126 8d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 14¢ $62 10d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 15¢ $4 10d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE $2 12d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE $1 12d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE $2 12d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE $3 12d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE $2 12d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE $5 12d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 10¢ $8 12d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 10¢ $51 12d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 24¢ $50 28d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 24¢ $26 28d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 25¢ $51 28d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs SELL Team Falcons $112 33d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 18¢ $4 33d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 18¢ $46 33d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 19¢ $49 33d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 20¢ $51 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.92 (match) · 375 history records