Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
65 0x65e7…e2cb crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$27 (+8%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -3.8% -12.9% 64% 64% -7.2%
≤30d 14 -3.8% -12.9% 64% 64% -7.2%
≤90d 14 -3.8% -12.9% 64% 64% -7.2%
all 14 -3.8% -12.9% 64% 64% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 64% -7.2%
10% -21.3% 36% -16.1%
15% -28.9% 36% -24.2%
20% -35.9% 29% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$19 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$6 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$22 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$24 +66%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$7 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$30 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $38 +$7 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records