Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
65 0x65eb…e197 sports 637 markets active 2h ago coverage 1099d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,507 (-4%) realized −$1,507 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate40%256W / 380L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$223est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$206
7 days−$23
14 days−$33
30 days+$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$913
other 19% +$1,469
crypto 13% −$1,368
world 5% −$1,550
economics 4% −$1,165
politics 2% +$162
weather 0% −$38
culture 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -2.2% -11.6% 52% 43% -11.2%
≤30d 47 -3.2% -12.4% 57% 43% -4.0%
≤90d 266 -6.8% -15.6% 50% 34% -2.4%
all 636 -10.5% -19.0% 40% 28% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 28% -13.4%
10% -26.8% 24% -21.7%
15% -33.8% 21% -29.3%
20% -40.3% 18% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$34 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1099d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,507
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses256 / 380
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$223
Open positions0
Markets (closed)636 / 637
History coverage1099d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 636 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $58 +$52 +90%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $79 −$33 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $42 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $42 +$10 +25%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $47 +$36 +76%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 −$6 -57%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $85 +$15 +18%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $17 +$25 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $83 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $66 −$9 -14%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $36 +$29 +79%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $56 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $178 −$37 -21%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $60 +$60 +100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $69 +$32 +47%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $58 +$37 +64%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-0 Jun 17 $6 −$3 -57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $57 +$64 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $186 −$109 -58%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $34 +$16 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$30 +150%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $72 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $57 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $488 +$200 +41%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $117 +$9 +8%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $100 +$54 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $21 +$8 +37%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $290 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $261 +$32 +12%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $250 +$10 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton May 28 $16 +$12 +76%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League S May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $3 −$2 -59%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 26 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 26 $21 +$9 +42%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America S May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - BC Game Masters May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 26 $96 −$96 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner May 23 $19 +$28 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $58 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 36¢ $46 37h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 45¢ $46 37h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 76¢ $5 37h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 76¢ $2 37h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 76¢ $5 37h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 76¢ $8 37h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 76¢ $8 37h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 76¢ $50 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $42 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $52 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $42 45h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Execration 34¢ $3 45h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 46¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $47 2d
New Zealand leading at halftime? SELL No 14¢ $4 2d
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY No 32¢ $9 2d
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY No 32¢ $0 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 69¢ $100 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $43 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $42 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $81 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $83 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 61¢ $56 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 70¢ $66 3d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 98¢ $36 3d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 98¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2258 history records