Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:18:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
65 0x65ee…08e0 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$87 (+31%) realized +$92 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$96
14 days+$96
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$91
sports 17% −$17
crypto 4% +$6
world 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +21.7% +10.1% 76% 76% +26.1%
≤30d 18 +15.0% +4.0% 72% 72% +20.1%
≤90d 18 +15.0% +4.0% 72% 72% +20.1%
all 18 +15.0% +4.0% 72% 72% +20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.0% 72% +20.1%
10% -5.9% 56% +8.6%
15% -15.0% 39% -1.9%
20% -23.4% 28% -11.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.85 per $1 lost it wins $4.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$92
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage15d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 57¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 +$3 +14%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$2 -59%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$5 +30%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$41 +101%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$10 +50%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$3 +34%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$5 +89%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -77%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $12 −$12 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $25 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 87¢ $23 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 28h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $48 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $21 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $8 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $17 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.97 · official $21.01 · 36 history records