Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65f0…ba9f world 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$1
sports 28% −$13
other 17% −$7
politics 7% +$36
tech 2% +$1
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 33 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 6% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 6% -7.4%
10% -18.2% 6% -16.3%
15% -26.1% 6% -24.3%
20% -33.4% 6% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage474d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $24 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $38 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $24 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $36 +$2 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $40 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 20 $34 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday? Jun 22 $1 $0 +2%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 21 $18 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 19 $2 −$1 -36%
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before April? Mar 07 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Trump say 'Gulf of America' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $21 +$36 +174%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? Mar 05 $27 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 4? Mar 05 $3 −$1 -43%
NJIT vs. Binghamton Mar 04 $35 −$16 -44%
Sacramento State vs. Portland State Mar 03 $39 −$1 -2%
UL Monroe vs. Louisiana Mar 03 $45 −$6 -13%
76ers vs. Timberwolves Mar 03 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Trump say 'China' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 03 $25 $0 -1%
Devils vs. Stars Mar 03 $27 $0 +0%
Gardner Webb vs. Presbyterian College Mar 03 $17 +$10 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 23m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $26 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $26 27h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $3 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $21 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $32 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $28 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $10 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $28 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $37 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $24 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $15 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $30 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $8 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $24 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $19 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $19 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $36 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records